A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
